973-723-0423

U.S. RevPAR Volatility Index & Probability of Recession

While the probability of a recession has grown from 11.1% in May 2019 (forecasted in May 2018) to 29.6% in May 2020 as illustrated in the lower graph, our U.S. RevPAR Volatility Index remains in the first or lower quartile. Over the past thirty years or so, the index...