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The number of international tourists arriving in Jakarta through Soekarno Hatta and Halim Perdana Kusuma Airports fell by 13.5% in 2019 to 2.4 million, down from 2.8 million in 2018 according to recently released BPS Provinsi DKI Jakarta data. Over the period 2005 – 2019, international tourist arrivals have grown from 1.2 million to 2.4 million, a CAGR of 5%. Based on out short-term Box Jenkins univariate forecasting model, we forecast a further decline in international visitors to 2.1 million in 2020, a decline of 14%.

Growth in Monthly International Visitor Arrivals to D.K.I. Jakarta 2005 – 2020 (includes Soekarno Hatta & Halim Perdana Kusuma Airport)

Source: BPS Provinsi DKI Jakarta

The preeminent role played by Jakarta in Indonesia’s burgeoning tourism industry is being seriously challenged by Bali and other major tourist destinations. Jakarta’s share of international visitor arrivals to Indonesia peaked in 2003 at 30.5% and since 2010, when it captured 27% of arrivals, its share has slipped to 15.2% in 2019.

Over the past five years, the number of international visitor arrivals to Jakarta has grown from 2.32 million in 2014 to 2.46 million in 2019, a CAGR of 1.1%. This compares with the number of international visitor arrivals to Indonesia which has grown from 9.4 million in 2014 to 16.1 million in 2019, a CAGR of 11.3%. As a consequence star-rated hotels in Jakarta are becoming more dependent on the domestic market. Domestic room nights accounted for 79.6% of room nights in Jakarta’s star-rated properties in 2003. Its share has climbed to 85% in 2018 and is likely to grow in the future.

Comparison of the Growth in International Visitor Arrivals in D.K.I. Jakarta and Indonesia 1999 – 2019

Source: BPS Provinsi DKI Jakarta

Jakarta’s star-rated hotels ended 2019 with an average occupancy of 60.5%, down 6.3 percentage points on 2018. 2018 was the fourth best year for room occupancy in 31 years! The year was eclipsed by the years 1989, 1990 and 1991 with annual room occupancies of 79.4%, 77.7% and 69.5% respectively. Since 1989 average occupancies have ranged from a low of 38.1% in 1999 to a high of 79.4% in 1989.

The top performing star-rated categories for room occupancy performance in Jakarta for 2019 were:

  • #1 2-Star – Occupancy 65.7%, down 13.1 percentage points
  • #2 3-Star – Occupancy 64.2%, down 13.9 percentage points
  • #3 4-Star – Occupancy 58.5%, down 0.2 percentage points
  • #4 1-Star – Occupancy 55.8%, down 2.1 percentage points
  • #5 5-Star – Occupancy 55%, down 3 percentage points

The historical and forecast growth in monthly room occupancy for each of the star-rated categories in Jakarta is illustrated in the following graphs.

Growth in Monthly Room Occupancy for All Star Rated Hotels in DKI Jakarta 1989 – 2021

Source: BPS Provinsi DKI Jakarta

Growth in Monthly Room Occupancy in 5 Star Hotels in DKI Jakarta 1992 – 2021

Source: BPS Provinsi DKI Jakarta

Growth in Monthly Room Occupancy for 4-Star Hotels in DKI Jakarta 1992 – 2021

Source: BPS Provinsi DKI Jakarta

Growth in Monthly Room Occupancy for 3-Star Hotels in Jakarta 1992 – 2021

Source: BPS Provinsi DKI Jakarta

Growth in Monthly Room Occupancy for 2-Star Hotels in DKI Jakarta 1989 – 2021

Source: BPS Provinsi DKI Jakarta

Growth in Monthly Room Occupancy for 1-Star Hotels in DKI Jakarta 1991 – 2021

Source: BPS Provinsi DKI Jakarta

With a wide range of attractions, Jakarta tourism authorities are promoting the city as a tourism destination at cultural fairs in Europe. Only time will tell if they are successful in reversing the slide in the market share of international visitors.