We are pleased to provide this updated executive summary of our report titled “Short-Term Forecasts of Visitor Arrivals to Bali, 2019-2021.” The full report can be downloaded at the end of the post. Subscribers to the report will receive a complimentary update of our forecasts of inbound tourist arrivals from China, Australia, India, USA, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Malaysia and Singapore every twelve months.
Executive Summary
Bali continues to be seen as the jewel in the crown of Indonesia’s burgeoning tourism industry. With the exponential growth in tourism, it is important that the demand for the island’s tourism product grows in alignment with the facilities available in a sustainable way.
Clear strategies are required to cater not just to the economic aspects of tourism, but to the environmental and social effects as well. Well-targeted advice is also needed to inform future planning and investment decisions.
Our forecasts support these goals by providing hotel investors, developers, managers, marketers, policymakers, and planners with short-term forecasts for:
- Inbound international arrivals, focusing on Bali’s main source markets, such as China, Australia, and India.
- Inbound domestic arrivals which originate from mainly East and Central Java as well as Jakarta
- The average length of stay in star-rated hotels, and
- Occupancy rates, a critical metric for the performance of hotels and other types of accommodation
Results from our forecasts show:
• Over the next three years, total visitor numbers to Bali are expected to increase by 19%, from 15.8 million in 2018 to 18.8 million in 2021
• Between 2018 and 2021 inbound visitor arrivals from ASEAN countries are expected to grow by 26% from 513,000 in 2018 to 645,000 in 2021
• Over the next three years, total visitor numbers from Asia-Pacific countries are expected to increase by 10% from 3.6 million in 2018 to 4 million in 2021
• China will remain Bali’s largest international source market, followed by Australia and India.
Our Forecasts
Our forecasts represent the most likely outcomes given past trends and current information. As with all forecasts, any variations in the assumptions or any disruptive events could produce risks that may drive forecasts either upward or downward. For this reason, we have introduced confidence limits with our forecasts.
International Visitor Arrivals to Bali, Indonesia 1982-2021
The significant growth in international tourist arrivals will continue due to Bali’s proximity to major Asia Pacific markets, visa-free travel from many major source markets, growing air transport connectivity and the governments aggressive marketing campaigns highlighting the island’s range of attractions. The island has made the most of its globally recognized natural and cultural resources at very affordable prices. In summary:
- 2.1 million visitors in 2008, 6.1 million in 2018, annual growth of 11.3%
- 7.2 million international visitors in 2021, 19.3% on 2018, 25% probability greater than 9 million, annual growth of 6%
- market share 41.8% of total visitors in 2008, 38.4% in 2018 & 38.4% in 2021
Growth in Inbound International Visitor Arrivals from China, Australia and India 2002-2021
As illustrated by our growth chart, visitation from China has witnessed some choppy months since our last report. China is set to break visitation records over the next few years. New direct routes by airlines such as Lion Air are linking cities such as Denpasar, Lombok, Batam and Jakarta with Chinese cities such as Yinchuan, Xian, Changsha and Qingdao. As direct flights continue to develop, Bali will face increased competition from new destinations in Indonesia. In summary:
- 129,000 visitors in 2008, 1.4 million in 2018, annual growth of 26.6%
- 2.4 million visitors in 2021, 75.6% on 2018, 25% probability greater than 3.3 million, annual growth of 20.6%
- Rank # 6 in 2008, # 1 in 2018 and # 1 in 2021
Modest growth as the Australian economy is expected to rebound from lower-than-expected growth of 1.8% in 2016–17 to approach its trend rate of growth over the next two years. Real GDP growth of 2.75% in 2017–18, increasing to 3.0% in 2018–19. The travel culture of Australians continues to display a shift towards experiential adventure and discovery across all age groups which augurs well for continued, albeit modest growth from Australia. In summary:
- 309,000 visitors in 2008, 1.2 million in 2018, annual growth of 14.2%
- 1.2 million visitors in 2021, 0.1% on 2018, 25% probability greater than 1.3 million, annual growth of 0.3%
- Rank # 2 in 2008, # 2 in 2018 and # 2 in 2021
India’s economy is projected to increase by 7.4% in 2017–18 and 7.5% in 2018–19. The higher economic growth will flow on to wider society, increasing the size of middle-income groups, and adding to travel propensities. Bali recorded a 49.7% growth in inbound tourists from India after the launch of Garuda Indonesia’s flights between Mumbai and Jakarta in early 2017. Batic Air now connects Bali to Chennai. Expect to see increased investments from India in the tourism sector. In summary:
- 27,000 visitors in 2008, 354,000 million in 2018, annual growth of 29.6%
- 631,000 visitors in 2021, 78.4% on 2018, 25% probability greater than 842,000, annual growth of 21.3%
- Rank # 14 in 2008, # 3 in 2018 and # 3 in 2021
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